A Mixed Weather Story For The Long Weekend

Some nice weather is on the way for the long weekend with some sunshine and warm temperatures for Saturday. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will come on Saturday night and on Sunday as a low pressure system moves through the interlake and Southern Manitoba.

A low will move through Saskatchewan tomorrow afternoon reaching Manitoba Sunday.

It will continue to be a beautiful evening out there for all folks in the South, with temperatures expected to dip into the mid to high teens and some clear skies. Tomorrow maybe a few degrees cooler than it was today as we see more cloudcover work it's way into the province out ahead of another system that will be moving in from Saskatchewan. We could also see some stronger winds ahead close to 30 km/h.

A possibly strong low level jet (LLJ) is forecast to develop on Saturday evening. According to A Weather Moment  "Current consensus is that a 40kt LLJ will develop over central North Dakota and slowly push eastwards overnight. An area of showers and thundershowers look to develop on the nose of the LLJ, mainly through areas between the International Border northwards towards Riding Mountain Provincial Park eastwards across the Interlake." The problem with this forecast currently appears to be associated with Isaac, as it will be pushing northwards towards Iowa before moving eastwards on Sunday. The moisture that is required for us to see thunderstorms on Saturday Night sits along a boundary left behind across the Northern States. The LLJ that forms tomorrow evening should be able to tap into the pool of moisture and transport it northwards into Southern Manitoba. However if the location of the moisture changes or moves which is Isaac then the LLJ would have little left to tap into and we would be left with no more than scattered showers. Along with little amounts.

A cold front will move through during the day on Sunday sparking up more showers and storms, possibly severe before they clear out during Sunday Night. Highs will be in the high 20's. Holiday Monday looks spectacular with highs in the mid to high 20's and a nice breeze from the Southwest.

Record Heat Hits Southern Manitoba

It was a record breaking day altogether on Wednesday for parts of Southern Manitoba, as a southerly flow pumped pumped up some of the hottest air of the year into the area. Temperatures rose into the mid to high 30's over the Red River Valley and Southwestern Portions of the province. In Winnipeg it was the 20th day this summer with high temperatures of 30C or higher (normal should be 13), Winnipeg's high temperature of 35.4C Wednesday tied July 29th as the hottest day of the year in the city. Record Temperatures were set elsewhere in Brandon at 36.9C, and in Dauphin at 37.9C which was the hottest spot in the country. Even hotter weather was recorded south of the border including minot at 40C in North Dakota and 44C in Chamberlain, South Dakota.


Record temperatures across Southern Manitoba Wed Aug 29... (Courtesy of Rob's Blog)

                        New      old     record  records
Location               record   record    year    began
--------------------------------------------------------
Berens River arpt      28.8     28.5      1991    1905
Brandon arpt           36.9     36.7      1972    1890
Dauphin art            37.9     35.6      1972    1891
Fisher Branch          34.6     32.0      1991    1977
Melita                 36.1     30.1      1996    1993
Pilot Mound            35.5     35.0      1961    1938
Pinawa                 33.4     33.0      1991    1964
Portage la Prairie.    36.6     35.6      1972    1886

Southern Manitoba Continues Baking In The Heat

Temperatures have already risen into the mid to high 30's in Southern manitoba, the heat will continue this afternoon and evening until a cold front passes through the region later this evening cooling temperatures into the mid teens. Tips: During the heat Manitoba Health suggests Manitoba residents take precautions against heat-related illnesses whenever the humidex climbs above 37. Manitoba Health advises the following:

• Stay aware and be prepared
  • Know daytime and night-time temperatures-both outdoors and indoors- by checking your local weather forecasts and the thermostat in your home.
  • Stay up to date on weather alerts so you know when to take extra-care.
  • If you have an air-conditioner, make sure it’s working properly before the hot weather starts.
• Stay hydrated
  • Drink plenty of water (that’s the best liquid) before you feel thirsty.
  • Avoid alcoholic beverages, as they can increase the amount of water lost by the body.
• Stay cool and keep out of the sun
  • Plan outdoor activities for cooler parts of the day, but remember to wear insect repellant since mosquitoes are out too.
  • If you are outdoors during the hottest part of the day, shade yourself from the sun with an umbrella or a wide-brimmed hat with lots of ventilation (to allow the sweat on your head to evaporate), wear loose-fitting, breathable, light-coloured clothing, and remember to wear sunscreen to limit ultra-violet (UV) ray exposure.
  • If there is no air-conditioning at home- go to a cool place such as an air-conditioned mall, public library, or community centre.
  • Take a cool bath or shower or go for a swim to cool off.
  • Avoid using your oven or other appliances that could heat your home more.
  • Limit physical activities during the hotter parts of the day or exercise in an air-conditioned place.
• Take care of yourself and others
  • Check on family members, neighbours and friends - especially older adults and those with chronic conditions. Visiting is best because it is easier to identify signs of heat illness that could be missed over the phone.
  • Never leave people or pets in your care alone in closed vehicles or direct sunlight.

                          info from A Weather Moment

I will have a better post tomorrow recapping the heat wave and temperatures that were recorded.
            

Heat To Dominate The Week Ahead

More hot weather will be welcomed this week as August comes to a close, we might get the hottest weather we have ever had this summer in southern Manitoba!

The NAM is hinting at temperatures in the high 30's if we don't experience much in the way of humid weather (Top Left). It may not be as hot on Wednesday if we get more humidity as what the GFS is saying (Top Right).

Another significant ridge of high pressure will build over Manitoba this week, bringing more possible hot weather back to the province. Tuesday will be a nice day in Southern Manitoba, where temperatures will climb up to and around 30C South, West and East of Winnipeg. Areas in the interlakes and in the parklands region may not get quite as hot, only getting near 28C. Altogether humidity levels should be quite low. The real heat and possible humidity will come on Wednesday as it could potentially be the warmest day of the year so far. With most temperatures reaching 34C+ feeling like the mid 40's,  in Southern Manitoba. Although things may get fairly hot if moisture content drops throughout the afternoon. To get a better idea of temperatures in one region (Winnipeg) here is a look at what some of the models are predicting...

• GEM-REG: 32C feeling like 42C
• NAM: 37C with low humidity
• GFS: 31C feeling like 42C
• ECMWF: 32C

Based on recent weather models and forecast frontal positions I would pick the GFS, as there appears to be a warm front sitting over Southern Manitoba on Wednesday ahead of another cold front. This means that our temperatures would feel closer to 40C with the humidity, and humidex advisories may have to be issued. However if the GFS turns out being the wrong solution, we may see the real heat as per what the NAM is predicting (meaning temperatures in the high 30's.) It all depends on moisture content, the more moisture you have the less the air can be heated, its the opposite if you have less moisture that would allow for hotter weather. I will be providing updates on twitter letting everyone know what we can really expect for temperatures on Wednesday. It is too early to tell at this point. I will also have a for sure answer on Wednesday's Post.

Sunny Conditions should be in place throughout Wednesday with little in the way of cloudcover. Things will start deteriorating in the evening hours as a cold front nears and passes, thunderstorms will be likely given the heat and or humidity that will be in place. Severe weather would be possible as it is still the summer season. Cooler Weather will be on the way for Thursday and Friday with temperatures in the mid to high 20's, behind the cold front. Get out there and enjoy it!

Stormy Weather On The Way Tonight, Leaving Behind Cooler Weather For the Weekend

With temperatures in the high twenties to low thirties today, a stormy night will take over as a cold front slides through Southern Manitoba and the Northern Plains. The cold front will knock down temperatures for the start of the weekend, as a NW breeze kicks in blowing air down from the Arctic.

A cold front will move through tonight sparking off showers and numerous thunderstorms

Until the day is done we will see temperatures rise into the high 20's low thirties across southern Manitoba with any leftover cloudcover clearing out. It should be a perfect sunset before things take a turn for the worst this evening as a cold front moves through the southern portion of the province until morning. Showers and numerous thunderstorms should develop along the front itself in the early to mid evening, likely growing in coverage as the night wears on. The showers and thunderstorms will move  the regions in the Red River Valley overnight, bringing a good 15mm to the area. The potential exists for some regions to receive over an inch of rain and a fantastic lightning show, likely the last of the year in Manitoba. Severe Weather will be possible tonight in North Dakota, and a slim chance in Manitoba meaning large hail and damaging winds the main threats.

Things should clear out for tomorrow making way for sunny skies and cooler temperatures near the mid twenties, with a light West to Southwest wind. Warmer Weather will be possible at the start of next week with high's near 30C. Take care during the storms everyone!

Hot Sunny Weather Continues For The Rest Of The Week

Southern Manitoba will be lounging in sunny hot weather for the rest of the week as upper level ridging moves east across the prairie provinces. The province will see a chance for thunderstorms on Thursday Morning through until the evening as a cold front pushes through. The Sunny and hot Weather will return for Friday.

850 MB Temperatures for Wednesday at 6pm. Look how warm it is in Southern Manitoba 20C+ 850 MB Temperatures. Meaning 30C Weather! Woohoo!

 A southerly flow ahead of an incoming upper level ridge has already pumped temperatures to the 30C mark in some places yesterday and today. So with 850 MB Temperatures near or above 20C we will see daytime highs soar from 30 to 34C today, before the day is done. The warm air that will be in place over the south will also create warmer overnight temperatures. Considering we have had cooler nights with temperatures in the mid teens, tonight we will barely dip below the 20C mark in some places. Other regions may feel cooler, although only about by 5 degrees (10 to 15C) especially in the Southwest and in the Parkland’s. There also will be a risk of thunderstorms overnight as the cold front advances eastwards in the Western Portion of Manitoba.

Tomorrow will be another warm one, however an approaching cold front will move along the international border through the day, bringing some showers and storms through the morning to SW MB and the risk of more thunderstorms to the Red River Valley from Winnipeg and maybe all the way to Fargo. If storms develop they will likely form in the late afternoon along the surface feature. They will probably develop more in North Dakota then in Manitoba, less of a chance in Winnipeg.

Despite the hot weather that will be in place and daytime high's near 30C, severe weather indicies look fairly weak so I probably won't expect any severe weather when they form. The better chances for severe weather will remain in North Dakota.

We will see our temperatures dip into the mid teens on Thursday Night, and Friday looks beautiful with the sunshine and temperatures near 30C continuing. For the weekend it looks like we could have a cold front sweep through Saturday, bringing the threat of more showers and thunderstorms along with cooler weather. So as a result Saturday's daytime high will be in the mid to high 20's. Temperatures will likely rebound for Sunday with them returning to the high 20's.

After that temperatures look to stay warm and beautiful for next week!

The Summer Heat Returns!

We will be welcoming back the heat of summer In Southern Manitoba for the coming 2 weeks, after a period cool and wet weather that has been in place.

The NAM indicates we could have some 30C+ Temperatures in some places during the day Tuesday. Tip: add 13C to the temperature you see on the map using the temperature legend.

As predicted, a ridge of high pressure will build over the province this week allowing for the warmest weather conditions to develop that we have seen this August in the province. So how are our temperatures shaping up province wide? Well for the Rest of the day today we can expect to temperatures rise into the mid twenties, although cooler as you head north. Lots of sunshine will be in place allowing for UV Levels to approach the 7 to 8 mark (which is the high values). The real heat comes on Tuesday when most places could record their first 30 degree reading of the month, as we see warm air ride in from the Pacific. In addition to the hot weather there could be some places that surpass 30, especially along the American border.

Unfortunately, the ridge will begin breaking down on both Wednesday and Thursday as a series of Shortwaves move in from the Pacific Coast. These shortwaves will have one or more low pressure systems associated with them, they will create some unsettled weather over the Southern Part of the province during the second half of the week. Current information from Spotwx indicates that an Easterly to Southeasterly flow will likely develop over most regions of Southern Manitoba out ahead of our first approaching low pressure system of the month. We may or may not reach 30C on Wednesday depending on air flow and position of fronts. It is still a possibility that we could see temperatures in the high 20's, though I am not certain if it will get warmer.

Thursday looks interesting for stormchasers as there appears to be a risk for thunderstorms in Southern Manitoba as a strong southerly flow brings more humid air up from the Gulf Of Mexico, out ahead of a low pressure system. This will be the first risk for thunderstorms we have seen in a while. Might also mean a threat for more severe weather if we have the right ingredients come together. Hopefully Capping isn't an issue, cause capping always prevents storm development.

As the weekend approaches NOAA Weather Models indicate an arrival of a series of low pressure systems through our portion of the province.  If the systems continue developing it will mean a warm and wet last weekend of August.

Get out there and enjoy the nice Weather! Head to the beach or go for a nice walk....

Cool Weather For The Next Few Days, Returning to Seasonal Temperatures By the Start of Next Week

We’ll see fairly seasonal weather over the weekend with overnight lows that will start off cool but climb back towards normal as well.

With The Jet Stream Struggling to push eastwards on Saturday the cool air will remain over NW Ontario and Southern Manitoba. Leaving behind the major warmth in British Columbia and Alberta. The Jet Stream will push eastwards slowly throughout the start of the week bringing warmer weather hopefully. 

After a beautiful day today we will see some cloudcover tomorrow as a trough travels south through the Red River Valley with a chance for some showers and maybe a thunderstorm before things clear out by evening. This will result in the temperatures staying fairly cool with them likely being in the low 20's in the Red River Valley, as cool air filters in behind the system. Although warmer weather will be in store for SW Manitoba where the sun will stay out pretty much all day.

The weekend will end sunny with temperatures climbing back into the upper twenties with the trend continuing into next week. Our next chance of precipitation could be on Tuesday Morning at 7am as another cold front slides south, the chances for precipitation at the moment are only looking to be 20%. I will keep everyone up to date on Twitter. Other than that the seasonal weather looks to take over once again!

Anyone Order Cooler Weather?

Colder than normal weather conditions will be expected this week over Southern Manitoba as another upper level disturbance crosses over Southern Manitoba midweek, bringing behind it cooler air. This will mark the start of another pattern change that could stay in place for a few weeks.

A powerful low pressure system will cross Southern Manitoba through the Night Tuesday and Through Wednesday, bringing behind it cooler weather for the second half of the week. The Welcome relief banner is published in this picture as the cool air will bring releif to those that experienced unrelenting heat in the upper states. Especially in Chicago. This photo is from The Weather Channel.

 

To start off the night tonight we will experience clear or clearing skies in Southern Manitoba, along with light winds either out of the north or the northwest allowing for our temperatures to drop past the 10 degree mark. So we will likely see temperatures in and around the 7 to 10C mark overnight, however that will allow for some patchy fog to develop considering how warm the ground is and how cool the air will be. Usually in this situation moisture usually develops especially near the ground. Any leftover fog should clear out by sunrise leaving behind sunny skies and temperatures rising into the low to mid 20's (from about 22C to 26C),  before more cloudcover rolls in ahead of the next system in the evening as the high pressure we are under departs. Temperatures in general for this period should be in the high 20's, and in Winnipeg the normal high temperature should be 25C/ low temperature 12C.

Another cold front will move through MB Wed Morning

The pattern change looks like will be in store for us by midweek. It looks like a major cold front will swing through Southern Manitoba through Tuesday Night and into the day Wednesday. The timing on this front may change, so I will update as needed. With the approach of this front expect showers and thunderstorms to generate over the Parkland’s Tuesday Evening and spread south-eastwards as the night progresses. The showers and storms will eventually travel into the Red River Valley, during the morning hours likely in a line and they would possibly exit the province by afternoon. The thunderstorms would likely become non severe with general threats below the severe threshold. Meaning lightning, rainfall in excess of 20 mm or less, small hail, and weak wind gusts. The remnants of this cold front will bring pop up showers and thunderstorms being fairly weak and disorganized in general to most parts of southern Manitoba. Temperatures would likely be in the low twenties throughout the day Wednesday, with cooler weather expected by the end of the day as a cool Northwest wind takes shape behind the front. 

Throughout the second half of the week we will likely see some cooler days with temperatures in the high teens to low twenties, as the low moves eastward. Looking ahead to the next couple of weeks, it appears difficult to predict. (I have found the following using the jet stream forecast model). With a ridge out west and a blocking pattern out East will be stuck in-between the two, meaning the likely trend will be seasonal weather until that blocking pattern moves on. After that, the ridge could either keep moving East or flatten out bringing us the same seasonal weather or another warm period. I will keep an eye on the situation and let you know how it plays out. 

Nice Start to The Weekend; Yet An Unsettled Finish

Beautiful Weather can be expected for the rest of the day today in most of Southern Manitoba with the threat for thunderstorms in some regions, before a more significant thunderstorm threat returns to the Red River Valley tomorrow afternoon and evening as a cold front goes through the region.

Another nice on day continues in Southern Manitoba

Throughout the day today expect conditions to range from a mix of sun cloud to thunderstorms along with warm weather across Southern Manitoba. High Temperatures will climb into the high 20's in Southwest Manitoba, the Red River Valley and in Eastern Manitoba along with comfortable humidity levels. Tomorrow a cold front will begin to work it's way into the Red River Valley.

Storms Poss. Tmrw

It's looking like we may see a small batch of morning cloud cover or rain showers, then some sunshine returning in the afternoon allowing for instability levels to rise likely then giving way to showers and storms as the cold front goes through the Red River Valley. The thunderstorms will be non severe in nature with a few of them likely becoming severe if they get going. The thunderstorms will clear out by evening, giving way to clear skies. Daytime highs will likely be in the range from 23 to 28C in most areas. 

Sunny Skies and seasonal temperatures return to start next week before another potent system brings a chance of rain or storms mid week. It will likely become cooler after this system by maybe a few degrees, not below 18C.

Comments will be provided on my Twitter account (@SouthMBWeather)

Nice Weather Expected to Continue, Becoming Unsettled For The Weekend

After a rainy weekend and a glorious start to the week, it is looking like the sunny and warm trend will continue for several days ahead as a ridge of high pressure starts building into the Eastern Prairies Including Manitoba. As a result we can expect to see temperatures in the mid to high 20's during the time period. Although we will see a very slight chance for some showers and thunderstorms today as an area of small low pressure slides through the area. Another area of low pressure is forecast to move in For Friday and Saturday bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms once again.

An area of High Pressure is expected to gradually build over Manitoba in the coming days, it is not shown on the map though it is find in the big circle in Northern Manitoba.

There is a chance for a shower or thunderstorm over Southern Manitoba this afternoon as a trough moves southwards as it heads into North Western Ontario, the best chances will remain to the East through the Whiteshell regions and in SW Manitoba. Everything should organize and drift south and eastwards out of the province by evening hours.

Next on the headlines, it is looking like a fairly strong ridge of high pressure will continue to build into Northern Manitoba, and it is looking like it will strengthen to almost be at 1030 mb by tomorrow morning. The axis will be from The Red River Valley Northeast into Hudson Bay and James Bay. The system will ensure sunny and clear skies over the period of the next few days, limiting clouds only to fair weather cumulus and as well allow for a southerly flow to take place over the southern portion of the province. This would usually result in hot temperatures and high humidity but in this case it will provide less humidity and more normal temperatures. Instead of this high pressure system being created by a ridge, this is one that will be created by a trough of  cold air descending from the Arctic. The southerly flow that will develop over southern Manitoba will be a return flow of air out of the high pressure system  instead of being a warm moist flow from the Gulf of Mexic. Leaving our temperatures slow to climb as each day progresses and dewpoints only rising into the low to mid teens.

Friday Saturday will be another stormy few days as another low moves into the province,scattered thunderstorms and showers will both be possible on these days with accumulations nearing 5mm in showers and higher amounts of course in thunderstorms. Severe weather will be possible on Friday in Southern Manitoba as highlighted by The Prairie Arctic Storm Prediction Centre based in Winnipeg.

Next Week looks like it will continue to be nice with Temperatures in the high twenties along with lots of sunshine.

I could not have found out some of these detail's if it weren't for Brad from

A Weather Moment

Weather Update on the way Tomorrow

I apologize for the lack of posts lately, as I have been away for the weekend. Thing's should get back to normal tomorrow with the regular posts on Monday, Wednesday and Friday. A post will be provide at 6pm tomorrow, see you all then!

Warm Active Weather To Dominate The Start Of August

Warm Temperatures will continue to make an appearance in Southern Manitoba as we will rise into the high 20 Degree range every day for the rest of the week. We will continue to see active conditions as multiple systems move over the province for the second half of the week.

A chance for thunderstorms exits as another trough moves through Southern Manitoba throughout the evening hours. This will be one of the many areas of low pressure systems that will pass through our area.

 We will see a chance for widespread afternoon thunderstorm activity across Southern Manitoba, as a weak disturbance moves through the area. Chances for Thunderstorms will be higher as you go through Western Manitoba and The Interlakes. In fact some are currently making an appearance right now, there is a slight chance a few may reach Winnipeg. The Threat will continue throughout the evening hours as the feature moves through. Before The Day is done temperatures should reach the 24C to 28C mark, along with nice temperatures from 12 to 17C Overnight. We will see nicer weather conditions for thursday with no precipitation expected and temperatures in the high 20's or low thirties.

Another Powerful Low Pressure System is set to make an entrance into The Province on Thursday Night as it pushes showers and thunderstorms out ahead of it into SouthWestern Manitoba that will last through until the morning when things clear out. The Low will sit over Southern Manitoba on the day Friday likely giving an enhanced severe weather threat given the instabilty that will be in place. Severe Storms with Large hail and damaging winds cannot be ruled out. There will be a chance for heavy rain/thunderstorms on Friday Night as the backside of the system wraps around. Saturday will be fairly cool at around 20C, as cool air filters in behind the system. Although the rest of the weekend will be a lot nicer with temperatures rebounding back up to 30 degrees.

Have A great Second Half of your Week!